When national polls take precedence
New Straits Times (Columns)
10 Sep 2006
ABDUL RAZAK AHMAD

Will Umno delay its next party polls, due next year, until after the coming general election? There are many reasons why it should but party members have mixed views on the idea floated recently, writes ABDUL RAZAK AHMAD.

UMNO’S 18-month itch has arrived. Eighteen months — a year and a half — is how long the party is allowed to postpone its triennial elections, and the next round, due next year, is fast approaching.

The party deferred its two previous polls to after the general elections of 1999 and 2004, in part to prevent the heated jostling for positions — especially intense in recent Umno polls — from overshadowing general election preparations.

So when Youth chief Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein recently said he preferred the coming general election — due by July 2009 — to be held before the next party elections, he underlined Umno’s "chicken and egg" situation.

Hishammuddin, speaking after opening the Umno Kampar meeting last Saturday, said having the general election first would focus the party’s attention squarely on job number one: Winning the general election.

"If we lose and fail to get the people’s mandate, it would not matter if I contest for any post, or even defend my post as Umno Youth chief," he replied when asked whether he would be going for one of the three vice-presidential positions in the next party elections.

Johor Youth chief Razali Ibrahim explains how party members read the statement.

"If we get too engrossed over who is more capable to lead the party, it will affect the real work we need to do," he says.

"Read between the lines; I think what he’s really asking us to do is concentrate on our work."

It’s a valuable reminder. The spectre of money politics still looms in the party. It led to a major push to wipe out the scourge after the last Umno polls in 2004.

Internal bickering also cost Umno dearly in the 1999 general election. There were stories of dropped incumbents who sabotaged the party machinery; of angry followers who voted for the Opposition.

These are cautionary tales the party has to bear in mind. And it’s a concern not just for Umno.

Of the other major Barisan Nasional components, the MCA is also scheduled to have its own polls next year. The talk is that the party will opt to wait until then before deciding whether to amend its constitution and delay its polls.

Others like the MIC and Gerakan held their triennial party polls this year, giving both breathing room, since the next round can be held after the general election.

Even the Opposition Pas wants to keep its options open in the event of a snap general election. It amended its rules during the party’s conclave earlier this year to allow a postponement of its party polls, also by up to 18 months.

For Umno, though, its own painful past makes the idea of deferring its next party polls very popular, especially among the grassroots, as the party’s Terengganu information chief Ahmad Shabery Cheek explains.

"As they see it, the people who contest in party elections are mainly the ‘elite’.

"And when ‘fighting’ breaks out after party polls, it’s also between the unhappy elite.

"The grassroots aren’t happy having to be the ones that end up cleaning up the mess later.

"They feel it’s better not to have contests before the next general election," he says.

Kelantan Umno information chief Datuk Md Alwi Che’ Ahmad says the rank and file are also concerned about whether there’s going to be enough time to repair any damage.

"It’s probably going to take more than a year to deal with any serious fallout from a party election and the general election is due only about two years from now," says Alwi.

"That’s why many in the party, including myself, feel it’s not good to have party elections first."

Umno’s election system has undergone much change.

The party, which has over three million members, basically holds elections at three levels — branch, division and supreme council — though often in separate years.

The postponement of Umno’s last polls means the next elections for all three levels will be held concurrently, within a three-month period.

"It’ll take too much time. This should be the time to focus on making a success of the Ninth Malaysia Plan and strengthening our general election machinery," says Dungun division chief Datuk Rosli Mat Hassan.

Another consideration is the selection of general election candidates.

Some believe having general elections first gives the Umno leadership — and ultimately the party president — a freer hand to choose the best party candidates for state and Federal seats, for the Cabinet and the Menteris Besar.

Unencumbered with having to choose candidates to reflect the results of a recent party election, the party has room to make necessary changes to a general election line-up if necessary.

"Delegates get a clearer picture; ‘this is what the Umno leaders want’, so when the party elections come, the choice then becomes ours whether we want to endorse the team or not," adds Alwi.

Others disagree and want an endorsement from the party first.

"It’s not easy for the president to decide the best Umno general election line-up, to make sure the chosen won’t cause problems in the party.

"Having a party election first means he can roughly gauge how well received a potential general election candidate is with the grassroots.

"He can use party sentiments as a barometer," says Shabery.

There are other factors to consider. The recently tabled 2007 Budget, which some called an "election budget", is seen as a signal of a snap general election, but Alwi brushes this off: "I believe the next general election is only going to happen once we start seeing the successes of the Ninth Malaysia Plan.

"It’s like planting a fruit tree. How can we ask people to judge the fruit even before the tree bears any? We wait for the fruit first."

That leaves one final question: The possible impact Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s attacks on the government will have on the party he once led.

Will it force Umno to hasten its polls to further consolidate party ranks ahead of the next general election?

Political analyst Dr Mohamed Mustafa Ishak of Universiti Utara Malaysia notes an aspect of Abdullah’s leadership style, which he says could signal how things may play out.

"When Abdullah took over from Dr Mahathir, he first went to the rakyat with the 2004 general election.

"Only after obtaining that huge mandate from the electorate did Umno hold its party elections.

"If Umno chooses the same route and waits for the general election first, and if it performs well, then it can hold party elections confident that its mandate and the leadership of Abdullah is untouchable.

"The more so now, with promises like the Ninth Malaysia Plan being watched closely by the people. Once the government gets its mandate, I think the rest will follow easily," says Mustafa.

Party information chief Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib says with so much to do, it’s still too early to decide whether to postpone the next party polls.

"What we need to do now is set the right tone for members. It’s like hitting a gendang; you want a proper echo. A discordant echo will lead to endless problems and politicking — it won’t get us far. We must hit the right note with party members and voters."

Historically, successive Umno elections in the last three decades were mostly spaced between general elections, though there have been exceptions.

But some of the best outings by Umno in past general elections were not due to whether the party held its polls before or after the general election.

Umno’s star showings — in 1974, when it won all 61 parliamentary seats contested; in 1978, when Umno won 69 of the 74 seats it contested; in 1982, when it landed 70 of 75 seats; and in 2004, when it lost only in nine of 117 seats — were times when the party was most solidly united under the leadership of its presidents: Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, Tun Hussein Onn, Dr Mahathir and Abdullah respectively.

In the past, each newly-ascended Umno president led the party to record wins in the general election. The challenge for Umno now would be to maintain such unity under Abdullah as it prepares for either of the polls.