Southeast Asia: Unrest Is Spreading 
International Herald Tribune
May 9, 1992
James Clad 

The presence of more than 100,000 demonstrators in Bangkok to protest the choice of general Suchinda Kraprayoon, the army chief, as unelected prime minister of Thailand is a reminder that all is not well in many of Southeast Asia's "miracle" economies.

Growth rates averaging between six and 10 percent a year over the last decade have put Thailand and most of its non-Communist neighbors firmly into the ranks of newly industrializing countries.

But the fast, export-led prosperity has also created a burgeoning middle class that is no longer content to take orders from a military caste or old elites. This is what is happening in the Thai capital.

In varying ways, middle class assertivess is also evident in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. They face impending problems of political transition. So does the Philippines, although it is lagging economically.

In Indonesia, President Suharto, a retired army general, aims to win another five-year term from a compliant electoral college in 1993, after parliamentary elections next month.

The parliamentary polls offer a sanitized set of candidates from "parties" forbidden to organize between elections. The campaign will be carefully stage-managed and the government's Golkar grouping is certain to win.

President Suharto's regime has grown stale. His family's extensive business connections with ethnic Chinese associates and foreign multinationals are widely resented.

The undoubted achievements of General Suharto's 24-year rule risk being undone by a no-change paralysis that leaves normal politics frozen.

Now over 70, Mr. Suharto has few compatriots from his generation in government. Within the military, even the most senior officers are considerably younger than he is. His influence over the Indonesian military - which, as in Thailand, has extensive political clout - has waned. Increased maneuvering over the succession is likely in the months ahead.

Political tension in the Philippines has a different cause. Enervated by six years of mainly passive presidency under Corazon Aquino, the political system is fragmented. Seven candidates are vying to succeed Mrs. Aquino in the elections on Monday.

Whoever wins is likely to gain a tally far short of a majority of total votes cast. There is no provision for a run-off between the two highest polling candidates.

Many Filipinos half-expect military intervention should there be an inconclusive result that is clearly disputed and threatens to perpetuate weak government.

In Singapore, the percentage of votes for the ruling People's Action Party has declined in the last two general elections. The government is contemplating countering this by a more authoritarian style.

An autocratic approach also prevails in Malaysia under Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad. He sees himself as a Third World leader and delights in assailing the same Western countries that have provided consistent markets for Malaysian commodities and manufactured exports.

Mr. Mahathir's whims become government policy; his campaigns a public embarrassment. Many Malays, as well as minority Chinese and Indians, are fed up.

Of course, the problems of non-Communist nations in Southeast Asia pale in comparison with those facing the countries of Indochina - Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos.

The governments of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have delivered sustained economic expansion.

Many of the emerging middle classes are prepared to subordinate yearnings for political pluralism to the scramble for wealth. Elections remain in a half-world of substance and shadow-play, providing legitimacy yet denying real choice.

However in Thailand, enough people care about democracy to embarrass the government. They object to the crude coup that brought General Suchinda and his military colleagues to power in February, 1991, and to the maneuvers following general elections earlier this year that led to his installation as prime minister last month.

The Thai middle class is also ashamed at the military's collusion with drug trafficking, logging of tropical forests and smuggling.

Like their bourgeois peers elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the Thai middle class is discovering pluralism, and liking it.

How the demand for greater democracy is received around the region will determine the conduct of political successions looming in many countries.

The writer, a former correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review in Southeast Asia, is senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. He contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.

Copyright © 2006 The International Herald Tribune