Malaysians Vote: Assessing the Malay Mood and Mahathir's Future 
International Herald Tribune
April 22, 1995
Philip Bowring

In multiethnic Malaysia, politics is always largely a matter for Malays. But more than ever, results of the elections (for Parliament and most state assemblies) called by Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad for Monday and Tuesday will be followed mainly for what they say about the standing of the dominant United Malays National Organization.

Coming 18 months before crucial party elections at the next three-yearly UMNO assembly, these elections will also be watched for clues as to whether Mr. Mahathir, who has been in office since 1981, will step down during the course of the next Parliament and whether his deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, 46, remains on course to succeed him eventually.

It is generally expected that overall the ruling National Front coalition - which includes as junior partners Chinese, Indian and multiethnic parties - will do better than during the 1990 elections, when its share of the vote fell to 53 percent as it faced increased opposition from Malay parties and the Democratic Action Party, which primarily represents working-class Chinese.

The non-Malay 38 percent of the population is enjoying the benefits of seven years of 8-percent-plus GDP growth. It may not care greatly for Mr. Mahathir's Third World rhetoric and sporadic bursts of religious fervor, but it recognizes his efforts in Malaysia to emphasize growth over ethnic income distribution, to reduce the state's role in the economy, to keep Islamic militancy at bay and to play down the primacy of the Malay language by emphasizing the role of English in development.

Mr. Mahathir's drive for modernization, his vision that by 2020 Malaysia will be classed as a developed country, appeals to the non-Malays as much as to the new Malay elite - and to foreign investors.

The National Front is expected to emerge with its two-thirds majority in Parliament (which enables it to push through constitutional amendments) enhanced.

The bigger the victory, the less likely that Mr. Mahathir, 69, will come under pressure within the party to step down any time soon. Despite heart problems in the late 1980s, he is fit, vigorous and shows every sign of wanting to stay at least until the Commonwealth Games, scheduled for Kuala Lumpur in 1998, and perhaps until the turn of the century.

Mr. Mahathir has always been an outsider to the Malay establishment, but no one can match him for determination to pursue his agenda, and to fight if challenged.

A year ago, after Mr. Anwar was elevated to deputy prime minister? following his defeat of his predecessor, Ghafar Baba, in UMNO elections, it seemed as if Mr. Mahathir might be persuaded to retire to make way for a younger generation. No longer. Mr. Anwar's star has waned a little, and he has been urging patience on his followers.

He has reportedly been at odds with protégés of his influential predecessor as finance minister, Daim Zainuddin, who remains close to Mr. Mahathir. Mr. Anwar is still regarded as Mr. Mahathir's chosen successor, but the prime minister is in no hurry to leave, and in UMNO politics nothing can be taken for granted.

In this election Mr. Anwar, whose background lies in alignment with orthodox, mainstream Islam, will have to show that he can keep the loyalty of urban Malays in his home state, Penang, where the Democratic Action Party is making a determined effort to present itself as a multiethnic party that can represent working-class Malay interests.

At stake throughout the country is how much UMNO is in tune with a Malay grass roots undergoing rapid change due to the speed of industrialization. It continues to face a strong challenge from the conservative Parti Islam in the heavily rural states of Kelantan, Trengganu and Kedah.

UMNO also continues to be weakened at the margins by Semangat '46, the breakaway party of former Finance Minister Razaleigh Hamzah. UMNO's rural image has been dented by a law providing for compulsory acquisition of land, a sensitive issue for Malays. There were too many cases of land ending up in the hands of well-placed property speculators and golf course developers.

Parti Islam is an old and known foe. Less certain is the attitude of newly urban Malays to UMNO. They, too, may be irritated by the way in which a small elite has garnered a large proportion of the fruits not only of progress but also of the privatization of public assets. "Instead of creating a few thousand Malay millionaires we have created a handful of billionaires," according to one critic.

UMNO has also been sullied by revelations of favorable share allocations to ministers' relatives and enrichment of businessmen close to the UMNO leadership. Sex scandals have added to concerns, particularly among middle- class Malays, about the trend in ethical standards.

But what will disillusioned urban, working-class Malays do? Religious conservatism has plenty of outward symbols but is short on urban political representation. The Democratic Action Party has a long way to go to throw off its image as the party promoting Chinese language and cultural issues.

In the longer run, the old ethnic- based politics on which UMNO has thrived may be breaking down in the face of the success in bringing Malays into the modern economy, achieving economic equality among the races. Malays are much more confident of themselves than a decade ago, less in need of sticking together at any price. Demography as well as economics will continue to enhance their position.

For now, however, Malays are more likely not to vote, or spoil their ballots, than to vote against UMNO. The size of abstentions, the details of voting patterns and the relative popularity of particular candidates, will be closely scrutinized for messages about the Malay mood.

Copyright © 2006 The International Herald Tribune