Questions Arise in Asia Over President's Clout : The Pentagon and Clinton, Again 
International Herald Tribune
September 16, 1998
Don Kirk

CORRECTION PUBLISHED IN THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, SEPTEMBER 17, 1998;

Because of an editing error, an article on Page 1 of Wednesday's editions reporting concerns of U.S. diplomats about President Bill Clinton's problems at home incorrectly attributed comments to Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. ambassador to Korea. He did not say that Mr. Clinton might face a special handicap in dealing with members of Congress, nor did he describe the handicap as one related to the president's clout with Congress.
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Ambassador Stephen Bosworth leaves for Washington on Thursday in an exercise in reverse diplomacy. Ordinarily responsible for representing the United States in South Korea, he will spend the next week lobbying members of Congress who are reluctant to approve $30 million to provide heavy oil for energy-starved North Korea.

Winning approval of the funding, as outlined in a 1994 agreement intended to stop Pyongyang's nuclear program, would be a tough assignment under any circumstances. But Mr. Bosworth, a veteran diplomat who has also served in the White House, says he may now face a special handicap: Can he count on President Bill Clinton to make those crucial arm-twisting telephone calls that may be needed to bring recalcitrant members of Congress into line?

In Asia, where U.S. policy is pivotal as the region endures economic hardship and where Mr. Clinton travels this fall for a summit meeting, similar questions are being raised by experts and analysts about the clout and effectiveness of a president under a dark cloud.

The president "is not at a high point of influence," said Robert Gallucci, who served in the Clinton administration and led the negotiations on the deal with North Korea, under which it agreed to end its development of nuclear weapons if it was supplied with light-water nuclear reactors and, until the reactors are built, oil to fuel power plants.

Han Sung Joo, a former South Korean foreign minister, agreed, saying Mr. Clinton "is in a compromised situation. He won't be as aggressive or assertive. Asian leaders will feel less intimidated."

Asian officials prefer not to speak publicly on such questions. But experts here, who are routinely in contact with Asian counterparts and colleagues, see Mr. Clinton's influence with Congress as a top concern as Mr. Clinton battles to deal with the fallout from the report by the independent counsel Kenneth Starr, outlining possible impeachable offenses.

In addition to security issues, particularly North Korea's recent missile launch over Japan, the region's broad and deep economic crisis is at the heart of their anxiety. Will the United States remain fully engaged in both areas?

"Koreans have been asking me that question," said Mr. Gallucci, who is now dean of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and was in Seoul as co-chairman of a conference sponsored by the Foreign Ministry. "A crisis is something the president can rise to, whether it concerns Libya or Iraq or Iran. It's the persuasion part that's an issue."

How much influence Mr. Clinton retains among Asian leaders is likely to be a backstage topic at the gathering in mid-November of leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation nations, including the United States, in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur. The summit meeting occurs just after the U.S. congressional elections.

The setting will provide several curious twists. Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia recently dismissed his deputy prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, charging, among other things, that Mr. Anwar had engaged in improper sexual conduct (Mr. Anwar has denied this). Mr. Mahathir has also been a bitter critic of Western capitalist precepts as enunciated by the International Monetary Fund, and he has banned the Malaysian ringgit from international currency trading.

"Mahathir might have a gleeful feeling," Mr. Han said.

Analysts believe that Mr. Clinton will not bring much to the table on a primary topic of discussion in APEC: the policies of the IMF in its bailouts of the economies of Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea.

Mr. Clinton is pushing for $18 billion in additional U.S. funding for the IMF, but the House of Representatives has approved only $3.4 billion. Some experts doubt that amid the scandal over his relationship with a former White House intern, Monica Lewinsky, Mr. Clinton will be fighting for anything on Capitol Hill except his own efforts to avoid impeachment.

"Everybody is going to say that this is not going to distract him," said William Clark Jr., former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific who was appointed by President George Bush. "But of course it does."

Mr. Clark, now president of the Japan Society in New York, said the president "is not going to waste one vote on Capitol Hill on anything but Bill Clinton." Because both funding for the IMF and heavy oil for North Korea are "not popular issues," Mr. Clark said, "I'm not sure that he would work for it even though it would make him look presidential."

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