Asian Tension Outlook: Bright Spots in North, Clouds in South 
International Herald Tribune
October 20, 1998
Michael Richardson 

Peace seems to be breaking out in Northeast Asia, while breaking down in Southeast Asia.

As a senior Taiwan envoy left China on Monday after a six-day visit that helped thaw relations between the two longtime rivals, Prime Minister Phan Van Khai of Vietnam flew to Beijing to try to add warmth to Chinese-Vietnamese ties. Relations between Hanoi and Beijing have been marked more by conflict than cooperation since the two sides fought a border war in 1979 and clashed over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea a few years later.

On Wednesday in Geneva, North and South Korea, China and the United States will resume negotiations on an accord that would end a state of war on the Korean Peninsula, like the Taiwan Strait one of the last Cold War frontiers.

And when President Jiang Zemin becomes the first Chinese head of state to visit Japan in November, he will get the same direct apology from Tokyo for the brutal Japanese military occupation before and during World War II as the one issued earlier this month to the visiting South Korean president, Kim Dae Jung. Mr. Kim said it was an "epoch-making" development that would pave the way for "relations of trust" between Japan and its former colony, South Korea.

By contrast, ties between erstwhile friends and partners in the Association of South East Asian Nations, which is often touted as among the world's most successful organizations for regional cooperation, have recently come under increasing stress, partly because of changes of government that have sharpened differences between the more democratic and the authoritarian members of the group.

The Philippine defense secretary, Orlando Mercado, said Monday that Malaysia had asked for a postponement of its quarterly meeting with the Philippines on joint patrols of waters between the two countries to curb arms smuggling, piracy and other illegal activities.

He said that the Malaysian request might have been prompted by "strained relations" between Manila and Kuala Lumpur after President Joseph Estrada of the Philippines expressed support for the dismissed Malaysian deputy prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim.

Officials in Manila said Monday that Mr. Estrada had decided to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Malaysia next month, but that he would also try to meet with Mr. Anwar, who is in police custody.

President B.J. Habibie of Indonesia also appeared to breach a longstanding ASEAN tenet of nonintervention in another member's internal affairs when he canceled a visit to Malaysia this month after officials said he was upset by the harsh treatment of Mr. Anwar.

In another blow to ASEAN solidarity, the Malaysian prime minister, Mahathir bin Mohamad, said Sunday that it would be "very difficult" to restore friendly relations with Singapore because recently published memoirs by Singapore's senior minister, Lee Kuan Yew, that "vilified" past Malaysian leaders had made Malaysians "very angry."

But analysts said Monday that despite the strains in ASEAN, it would be easier for Southeast Asia to manage problems in regional relations than it would for countries of Northeast Asia to overcome their deep-seated territorial conflicts and mutual suspicions.

"There's a qualitative difference in the tensions that exist in the two regions," said Jusuf Wanandi, chairman of the supervisory board of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Indonesia. "In Southeast Asia it's more rhetorical; in Northeast Asia, the danger is for real."

Western officials agree that the most intractable and potentially explosive conflicts — those that could cause a major regional or even international war — are in Northeast Asia.

The commander in chief of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Admiral Joseph Prueher, said last week that divisions on the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan-China divide were the two main danger spots in East Asia.

"North Korea is the most volatile," he said. "That's not because they possess a great military capability, though they possess some; it's because of the mercurial decision-making that goes on in North Korea. We cannot predict very well what they will do. "

Concerning the resumption of talks between Beijing and Taipei, Gerald Segal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in London, said there was no sign of a fundamental change in the rivalry between the governments, each of which claims to be the legitimate representative of the Chinese state.

"This is seriously cosmetic stuff," he said of the talks. "Beijing wants to push its claims to Asian leadership and placate the U.S. by going through the motions of détente with Taiwan."

Mr. Segal said that despite prospects of improved ties in the short term between China and Japan, "in the long term, it's a relationship that's going to get worse."

"China sees itself as the natural leader in Pacific Asia, whereas Japan feels that's not in Japanese interests."

As a result of such lack of trust and common interests, countries in Northeast Asia have not been able to form a regional organization similar to ASEAN to manage difficulties and promote cooperation.

Formed in 1967, ASEAN helped its founder members — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand — overcome stormy relations, including Indonesia's armed confrontation against the Malaysian federation, which then included Singapore.

ASEAN later extended its membership to include Brunei, Vietnam, Burma and Laos — every country in southeast Asia, except Cambodia, which is expected to be admitted in December.

Yet this expansion has made it more difficult to smooth over differences among members of the group.

Still, Southeast Asian officials express confidence that ASEAN will continue to defuse any potential causes of armed conflict among its members.

"One of the greatest achievements of ASEAN is that all the differences among its members have been kept in bounds," Thailand's foreign minister, Sukhumbhand Paribatra, told a meeting of business leaders and officials last week. "War between ASEAN members is almost inconceivable."

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