Malaysia Opposition Faces Uphill Battle : New Political Challenges For Southeast Asians  
International Herald Tribune
April 6, 1999
Thomas Fuller

The leaders of Malaysia's political opposition have unveiled what is potentially the most serious, broad-based challenge to the 18-year rule of Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad.

A new party inaugurated over the weekend by Azizah Ismail, the wife of Anwar Ibrahim, the dismissed deputy prime minister, promises to usher in a new era of Malaysian politics, linking the often fragmented, racially diverse political groups that oppose Mr. Mahathir.

But the opposition, even if it is united, is long way from threatening the 73-year-old prime minister and his government, political analysts say.

So tight is the grip of Mr. Mahathir and his allies that the new opposition grouping may not even be able to strip the governing coalition of its two-thirds majority during the next round of general elections, which must be called within a year.

"The ruling coalition is powerful, overwhelmingly powerful," said Chandra Muzaffar, deputy president of the newly formed opposition grouping, the National Justice Party. "It will be very difficult to unseat them. But you have to set your sights high and hope for the best."

The National Justice Party, a name chosen to evoke the travails of Mr. Anwar, who is awaiting a verdict in a politically charged trial that has captivated the country, is up against not only Mr. Mahathir's formidable political skills but also proven party machinery that has held power without interruption since independence in 1957.

Mr. Mahathir also has strong influence over the Malaysian mass media. The launching of the party, for example, received scant treatment in newspapers Monday, despite the thousands of people who attended.

Perhaps the biggest potential weakness of the opposition movement comes from within. The new party is meant to serve as a bridge between two groups at opposite ends of the political spectrum: a secular, urban-based Chinese party and a rural, Muslim party that says it would like to transform multiethnic Malaysia into a Muslim state.

With such diverse partners, the new party may find it difficult to build a common platform, something noticeably absent from the inauguration Sunday.

The party sent out a message of broad themes: justice and reform. Perhaps the group's most unifying factor is its strong opposition to Mr. Mahathir.

"This election will be a referendum on Mahathir," says Jomo K.S., a professor at the University of Malaya. "What Anwar is trying to tell the Malay electorate is that the choice here is between him and Mahathir."

Mr. Mahathir, who spent his third day in the hospital Monday for treatment for a lung infection, dismissed the popular Mr. Anwar last year as deputy prime minister and as his probable successor, leading to a political crisis and widespread disaffection among the Malays, the country's largest ethnic group.

Analysts say that Mr. Mahathir, whose standing in his party was buoyed by a victory in a state election last month, might be tempted to call elections before the new opposition party has a chance to organize itself.

"The most important thing now is not the state of the economy, it's the state of the opposition," said Abdul Razak Abdullah Baginda, executive director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center. "If the opposition is in disarray, that's the time to call elections."

One wild card for Mr. Mahathir and his allies might be the April 14 verdict in Mr. Anwar's trial — and the public's reaction to the ruling. Mr. Anwar is accused of ordering police officers to cover up allegations of sexual indiscretion. He faces 14 years in jail or a 20,000 ringgit ($5,260) fine, or both, on each of the four counts against him.

Mr. Anwar and his allies have little hope that he will be acquitted.

"I think most Malaysians think the outcome is a foregone conclusion," Mr. Chandra said.

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