Biggest Test for Mahathir May Come in Malay Backyard 
International Herald Tribune
November 26, 1999
Thomas Fuller

Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad's toughest fight in the general election Monday will most likely be here in his own backyard, where an Islamic opposition party has hundreds of thousands of supporters and where past elections have been decided by as few as 11 votes.

Politicians in both Mr. Mahathir's coalition and the opposition say the prime minister does not risk losing his own seat here, nor, they say, is the governing coalition likely to lose the election nationwide. But a defeat in the "Malay belt," as this northern arc of four states is known, would call into question the supremacy of Mr. Mahathir's party in national politics and could lead to calls within his own party for him to step down.

Mr. Mahathir's United Malays National Organization, or UMNO, is the dominant party in a coalition that has ruled Malaysia since independence in 1957. But with a stiff challenge in the Malay belt, the prime minister could lose more seats in the election than his Chinese and Indian coalition partners, potentially diluting his power and influence.

"The tradition has always been that UMNO is able to dictate its terms and the others fall into line," said Abdul Razak Abdullah Baginda, executive director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center in Kuala Lumpur. "But if UMNO loses the Malay belt, other parties will be able to demand a lot more concessions."

Those demands are likely to focus on issues such as the allocation of key ministries to members of the minority coalition partners and the construction of more Chinese-language schools.

In the race-based logic of Malaysian politics, the struggle for power in the Malay belt has been described as fratricidal, pitting one ethnic Malay party, the United Malays National Organization, against another, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, which has as its ultimate goal the establishment of an Islamic state in the country.

The Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party currently holds power in the second-largest state in the Malay belt, Kelantan, the only state in Malaysia governed by the opposition.

Every night for the past week thousands of party supporters have converged at rallies across the Malay belt, listening to speakers rail against Mr. Mahathir and his government.

On Thursday night, outside the small town of Pokok Sena, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party held a typical gathering: About 1,000 men and women converged to hear Mahfuz Omar, the local party candidate, and other party leaders condemn corruption and criticize Mr. Mahathir for the dismissal, beating and trial of Anwar Ibrahim, the former deputy prime minister.

Other speakers devoted their entire speeches to countering articles that have appeared in the government-controlled media.

"This is our opportunity to hear the truth," said Bohari, a rice farmer who spent the evening sitting on his motorcycle by the side of road as the voices of speakers echoed off the hills nearby.

But in a clear sign of the tensions and the mutual suspicions surrounding the election, Mr. Bohari, like many others who attended the rally, declined to give his full name.

Elections are a sensitive time here, especially when voting for the opposition has been portrayed in the mainstream media as something akin to a criminal act.

"Voters must choose between peace or riots," said Sanusi Junid, chief minister of Kedah, the largest state in the Malay belt.

In the cities, the election campaign has centered around issues of justice and personal freedoms. But farmers here say their chief concerns are falling rubber prices and the fact that the government-set price at which they sell their rice has remained the same, but the price of polished rice in the shops has gone up.

Farmers also note with cynicism that the price of rubber had been falling for several years until elections were called, when the price doubled overnight.

"After the election, we all know the price will drop," says Khir Mohamad, an Islamic teacher attending the rally in Pokok Sena.

In Alor Setar, the head of the United Malays National Organization's election campaign says rice and rubber are not issues in the election. "They are lying to you. They are very happy with the current prices," said Mohamad Rozai Shafian, who is contesting a seat in the local Parliament and runs the day-to-day machinery of the party in Kedah.

Mr. Mohamad predicts a repeat of the sweep of all 15 parliamentary seats that the party achieved in 1995. Across town, Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party leaders are more cautious, claiming they will win seven of the 15 seats.

With no tradition of reliable opinion polls, predicting the outcome in the Malay belt remains largely a guessing game.

Many analysts point to a by-election 18 months ago in the northernmost state of Perlis, where the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party won a parliamentary seat with an impressive swing vote of 16 percentage points.

Mr. Mahathir's organization had not lost a parliamentary seat in Perlis since Malaysia's first general election in 1959.

And in Kedah, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party says their membership has increased from 70,000 in 1997 to 123,000 today.

Members of the governing coalition in Kedah, however, say that they have history on their side. In the 42 years since independence, they have only lost a total of four parliamentary seats in Kedah.

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