Southeast Asian Stability Is at Risk
International Herald Tribune
September 28, 2000
Alan Dupont

Until the Asian financial crisis struck in 1997, an increasingly prosperous and generally benign Indonesia had been a stabilizing force in Southeast Asia for 30 years. Today, as Indonesia tries to establish democracy after the long authoritarian rule of former President Suharto, a relapse into sectarian violence appears to threaten its unity — and is focusing international attention on other troubled Southeast Asian countries.

The seemingly intractable domestic problems of Indonesia are a primary source of the region's loss of confidence. This is in contrast to the optimism of just a few years ago.

President Joseph Estrada of the Philippines has sent troops to Jolo Island to try to suppress the radical Muslim Abu Sayyaf gang. The group is one of several Muslim organizations that say they want independence from the predominantly Christian Philippines. In fact, it is driven more by venality than religious zeal. In Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad's long rule is also threatened by a rejuvenated Islamic opposition and extremist Muslim sects.

The criminalization of insurgent movements in Southeast Asia that were once motivated primarily by ideology is a disturbing feature of the new security environment. The Timorese militias responsible for the recent killing of three United Nations workers in West Timor are rapidly descending into criminal violence that has little to do with the political realities of a soon-to-be independent East Timor.

Similar forces are active along the border between Burma and Thailand. In Burma's northeastern Shan state, 15,000 well-armed Wa tribesmen control an expanding enclave that has the hallmarks of a state within a state.

Their "army" runs an efficient and extremely lucrative trade in illicit drugs, pumping hundreds of millions of dollars worth of heroin and amphetamines into Thailand and other neighboring countries. The Thai government is so concerned that it has designated drug trafficking as its chief national security problem.

Countries in the region need to be more active in condemning and countering kidnappings, hostage-taking, drug-trafficking and other criminal practices because they are undermining Southeast Asia's previously hard-won reputation as an area of peace and cooperation. Without such stability, investment and economic growth will be more difficult to sustain.

Much of the recent deterioration in Southeast Asia's security situation can be traced to the Asian economic crisis and its exposure of the deep fault lines that have long divided the region's multiethnic communities and states. But the Indonesian government's acute internal problems and the loss of its leadership in the councils of the Association of South East Asian Nations have accentuated the region's malaise.

Is the region returning to the fractious, authoritarian and violent past that preceded ASEAN's formation in 1967? Was the economic miracle of the last 30 years a mirage and the hope for a democratic Southeast Asia a delusion?

Despite the current gloom, the evidence suggests that the region is not on an inevitable downslide. Southeast Asia's present troubles should not obscure the fact that its constituent states have made great political, social and economic progress since ASEAN was founded. The basis for a new regional order has been laid.

Slowly, but surely, vibrant civil societies are emerging throughout the region. They are committed to the rule of law and respect for human rights. They also demand greater accountability from those who govern. With the notable exception of Indonesia, economic recovery has been speedier and more robust than almost anyone dared to predict at the height of the economic crisis in 1997 and 1998.

Nevertheless, continued progress cannot be assumed unless Southeast Asian nations take a more proactive approach to dealing with their many problems. How best to assist Indonesia's economic recovery and lend support to the embattled government of President Abdurrahman Wahid should be at the top of ASEAN's agenda. It should not be left to international agencies and Western nations.

The writer directs the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defense Studies Center in Canberra. He contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.

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