Manila Peace Bid Paying Off in Muslim Area
International Herald Tribune
August 20, 2001
Thomas Fuller

The low-level civil war that has raged here on the sprawling and impoverished island of Mindanao intermittently for three decades has dragged down the Philippine economy, drained the government's budget and provided a major obstacle in forging closer ties among Southeast Asian countries.

Now, the administration of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is vowing to bring "peace and development" to this southern island where separatist Muslim rebels have challenged the predominantly Christian national government in Manila.

It is hardly the first time that a Philippine president has announced a plan to fix Mindanao's problems, but Mrs. Arroyo's peace efforts have been more aggressive than those of her immediate predecessor and have produced results.

After seven months in office, she has won a cease-fire with the leaders of the largest rebel Muslim army, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and has persuaded it to sign a unity agreement with a rival group that has since joined the government.

Perhaps most significantly, she has actively courted Muslim Malaysia as a mediator in the conflict, setting aside for now territorial disputes and traveling to Kuala Lumpur this month in what was her first foreign trip since becoming president. Peace negotiations between the now unified Muslim groups and the government are under way.

The stakes in the peace effort are high both for the Philippines and Southeast Asia as a whole. Mindanao has long been a flash point of Southeast Asian politics, a fault line between the Christian Philippines and its Muslim neighbors of Malaysia and Indonesia to the south. The rebellion has not only destabilized the Philippines and its immediate neighbors but also has driven away tourists and investors.

Mrs. Arroyo's government must deal not only with the long-established armies of mainstream rebel organizations but also with smaller, ragtag groups like the Abu Sayyaf, who have grabbed headlines in high-profile kidnappings. Her strategy so far in dealing with the Abu Sayyaf has been brute force, a campaign that has yet to show results.

Peace in Mindanao is crucial not only for the Philippines but also for Mrs. Arroyo's career. Analysts say no matter how successful she is in governing the rest of the country, failure in Mindanao, home to 17 million people, could sink her administration and undercut her chances for a victory in presidential elections scheduled in 2004.

"If she doesn't fix Mindanao there will be no hope for 2004," said Eliseo Mercado, president of Notre Dame University here and a leading authority on Mindanao. "She will just be a transitional president."

On the surface, Mrs. Arroyo has good credentials as a peacemaker in Mindanao. Unlike any president in recent memory, she speaks the language of the south, Visayan, and spent time living on the island as a child.

Her overtures toward the Malaysian government show pragmatism and political will, analysts say. Praising Malaysia's prime minister, Mahathir bin Mohamad, as a "model leader," she galvanized Malaysian leaders in their role as mediators.

Malaysia holds credibility among the rebels both because of Muslim ties and because many rebels sought shelter in Malaysia's eastern state of Sabah during the decades of conflict.

Mrs. Arroyo has lined up commitments from Malaysia and Libya to invest in palm oil plantations in Muslim areas, which tend to be poorer than Christian-dominated areas.

But the president's strategy is highly risky. She carried through with a controversial referendum last Tuesday designed to decide which provinces should join a struggling autonomous Muslim region. The vote was boycotted by key Muslim groups and resulted in just one province joining the region, a prelude, analysts said, to further turbulence.

The president's most daring move so far was the sidelining of the governor of the autonomous region, Nur Misuari, one of the founding members of the rebellion who has long been criticized as ineffectual and a poor administrator.

Mrs. Arroyo picked a successor, Muslimin Sema, who is unproven beyond the fact that he was elected mayor of Cotabato City by a large margin in May.

Analysts say the shift in Manila's allegiances show that the administration is looking toward 2004, seeking out leaders who are "electable." But for the moment all eyes remain on the loser: Militants and government officials say Mr. Misuari's next move could be crucial to the future of the peace effort.

The former revolutionary, who is in his early 60s, still holds significant support among the rank and file. He is the longtime leader of the Moro National Liberation Front, which signed a peace agreement with the government in 1996.

Perhaps Mrs. Arroyo's biggest potential pitfall is the prospect of the unity agreement between the two big rival groups dissolving. The agreement signed in Kuala Lumpur refers obliquely to a common "objective and aspiration" of the Moro people — Muslims in Mindanao — but provides no details.

Mohagher Iqbal, an official of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, says that financial details and specifics on power-sharing in the autonomous region have yet to be worked out. The accord, he said, is fragile.

Copyright © 2006 the International Herald Tribune