Who Stirs Things Up in Malaysia?
International Herald Tribune
May 25, 2001
Philip Bowring

The tempo of Malaysian politics has picked up. Some see developments as the beginning of the end of Mahathir bin Mohamad's 20-year dominance. There have been suggestions that he is preparing his exit.

More likely is that he has taken the initiative to confuse allies and enemies alike, aiming to rekindle his popularity and obstruct the emergence of a successor. He may hope that by 2003, year of the party elections, or 2004, when a general election is due, the fortunes of the economy and of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) will have revived.

This is bad news for those who believe that Malaysia must have new leadership if institutions undermined by years of personal rule and political patronage are to be revived. But no one has prospered by underestimating Mr. Mahathir's will to dominate.

The most striking development has been an apparent split between the prime minister and his friend and finance minister, Tun Daim Zainuddin, whose mastery of corporate maneuvers has been the key to the prosperity, or otherwise, of most major UMNO-linked Malay entrepreneurs.

Denunciations of "money politics" have been emanating from Mr. Mahathir and other ministers. Stories abound of investigations into the sources of wealth of certain entrepreneurs once associated with Tun Daim. Whether this gets beyond rhetoric remains to be seen, but it makes political sense. If there is one person more unpopular in many quarters of UMNO than Mr. Mahathir it is Tun Daim.The prime minister knows that the wider public wants to see action against money politics. He must present himself as leading the revitalization of the party, however difficult that may be given the extensive web of patronage over which he and Tun Daim have presided.

The dropping of additional corruption and sodomy charges against Anwar Ibrahim is significant. Here is the more accommodating Mr. Mahathir, anxious not to deepen Malay divisions. The decision will help keep Mr. Anwar, whose supporters have proved more resilient and persistent than might have been expected, out of the limelight.

Mr. Mahathir continues to use the big stick of Internal Security Act detention without trial against hard-core supporters of Mr. Anwar.

Persuading Malays to swing back behind UMNO is his big challenge. He failed to entice Parti Islam or Keadilan, the party headed by Mr. Anwar's wife, into talks on "Malay unity." But the highly emotive issue of preferential university entrance quotas for Malays is now back on the front pages. This is a none too veiled reminder that there can be no preferences without Malay political dominance, and no dominance if the Malay vote is split three ways.

Malay resentments against Mr. Mahathir range from money politics to the treatment of Mr. Anwar. Some Muslims denounce his essentially secular agenda, which appeals to Chinese and to foreigners. But Mr. Mahathir may be right in thinking that at the end of the day Malays will see UMNO as their protector. And most non-Malays see UMNO as their protector against more militant Islam.

So, while bringing the ethnic quota issues back into prominence, he has moved to shore up his Chinese support by announcing the appointment of special advisers on Chinese issues.

For those in UMNO who think that his departure is what the party needs above all else, new doubts have been sown about the suitability or readiness to succeed of his deputy, the mild-mannered Abdullah Badawi, a man untainted either by sleaze or by overambition.

Even the name of Tunku Razaleigh Hamzah, the ambitious former finance minister who was once Mr. Mahathir's greatest foe, is being bandied around. If he returned to the cabinet, where would that leave Mr. Badawi? The Razaleighrumor may well be a ruse, but nothing is impossible when Mr. Mahathir sets his sights on his own survival.

Nor one can anyone be sure that even a change of leadership would restore UMNO's fortunes while Mr. Anwar remains in jail, Keadilan still exists and the opposition front maintains sufficient unity to threaten UMNO dominance.

There may well come a time when UMNO activists feel so desperate that a dump Mahathir movement gains momentum and the issue of who succeeds him becomes secondary. But for now he appears to have taken back the initiative.

Copyright © 2006 the International Herald Tribune