Afghan War Risks Radicalizing Muslims, Analysts Warn : Stoking Southeast Asia Tensions 
International Herald Tribune
October 31, 2001
Thomas Fuller

When Muhammad Shukri Sattar, a 24-year-old Malaysian university student, was arrested last month in Thailand while attempting to ride his motor scooter to Afghanistan, it provided a dose, perhaps perversely, of comic relief for diplomats and officials in Malaysia.

Mr. Muhammad, who told officials he had wanted to "help" Afghans under attack by the United States, was ill-prepared for what would have been a journey of more than 8,000 kilometers (3,100 miles) across at least five countries. He was carrying the equivalent of about $20 and was arrested after Thai police discovered that he had entered the country illegally and had no driver's license or vehicle registration.

But political analysts in Southeast Asia say there is a more serious side to Mr. Muhammad's trip, which ended with the student being handed over to the Malaysian authorities. In more lawless parts of Southeast Asia, where radical Islam is becoming increasingly entrenched, willing recruits such as Mr. Muhammad may be more effective in their missions — and have more radical goals.

Southeast Asia, beset by economic hardship and heightened religious tension, is increasingly considered by U.S. officials and specialists in the region as fertile recruiting ground for terrorists. The war in Afghanistan is stoking tensions among Southeast Asia's multiethnic population and risks polarizing and radicalizing Muslims, analysts say.

"I think there is a basis in the belief that the possible sources of terrorism will not be solely from the Middle East but will also come from Southeast Asia, from militants and extremists," said Eliseo Mercado, an expert on Muslim affairs around the region and president of Notre Dame University in Cotabato City, Philippines.

A confluence of events has turned a bad year into a potentially pivotal one for the region, home to half a billion people. Recession in several countries and the prospect of a protracted economic slump in the United States — the region's biggest investor and trading partner — is likely to mean higher unemployment and rising social tensions, a potential recipe for further turmoil.

The possibility of military intervention in the region by the United States — American advisers are already on the ground in the southern Philippines — has further stirred emotions among Muslims in Southeast Asia.

"In the wake of Sept. 11, the mood has swung completely," said Farish Noor, a specialist on Islam in Malaysian politics. "There's a very neat cleavage between Islamicists and secularists."

In Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur, Muslim opposition parties have held rallies in front of U.S. embassies, with protesters wearing T-shirts or holding posters bearing the image of Osama bin Laden, the Saudi terrorist who some Muslims believe has advanced the cause of Islam.

"There's a brewing polarization," said Mr. Mercado of Notre Dame University. "Radical Muslims are a growing and aggressive minority in Southeast Asia, and events in Afghanistan can strengthen their support."

Some Islamic groups have had connections to the Taliban or Mr. bin Laden for years. In the Philippines, dozens of separatist rebels have received training by the Taliban, and one group has acknowledged receiving support from the International Islamic Relief Organization, a charitable group that was managed in the southern Philippines by Mr. bin Laden's brother-in-law, Mohammed Jalal Khalifa.

Terrorism is a way of life in the strife-torn southern Philippines, where Muslim separatists have battled the government for more than two decades. Kidnapping is the area's most lucrative industry, second perhaps to smuggling. Bombings are so common they barely make the national newspapers.

In Indonesia's Maluku Province, Christians and Muslims have battled each other for three years, leaving thousands of people dead. The violence has spread to Jakarta, where churches and shopping malls have been bombed.

Officials say these Muslim-Christian conflicts have strengthened cross-border relationships between Islamic groups. In August, a 26-year-old Malaysian, Taufik Abdul Halim, was arrested in Jakarta after a bomb he was carrying prematurely exploded in a shopping mall. The bomb seriously injured four people and blew off one of Mr. Taufik's legs. He had traveled to Indonesia last year to fight alongside Muslims in Maluku.

For governments in the region, the prospect of spreading Muslim militancy poses a dilemma. Secular-leaning leaders like Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia and President Megawati Sukarnoputri of Indonesia must now keep a delicate balance between fostering good ties with the West and pleasing Muslim voters who may be uncomfortable with the notion of a protracted war against the Taliban.

Abdul Razak Abdullah Baginda, executive director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center, a research organization linked to the government, says some Muslims in Malaysia see opposing the United States "as a cause."

"I can imagine there will be people who will go and fight alongside the Taliban all in the name of Islam," he said.

Since the United States began its military strikes in Afghanistan, Islamic political parties and separatist groups in Southeast Asia have openly called for a holy war against the United States. Such calls have weakened support for their parties among moderates, but have also served to radicalize the parties.

In order to combat the potential for cross-border terrorism, officials in Southeast Asia have agreed to share intelligence and step up border controls. But it is a tall task for already poor governments facing tighter finances.

"All the governments are worried that Islamic networks are being solidified and enhanced," Mr. Farish said. "Every resource of the state is now going to be put into controlling these organizations."

Porous borders between the region's two largest archipelagos, the Philippines and Indonesia, have for years helped foster corridors of lawlessness. Together, the two countries consist of 24,000 islands, making them extremely difficult to monitor or patrol.

But experts say it remains uncertain whether any Islamist movements in Southeast Asia will reach the radical levels seen in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

"Southeast Asians don't have the temperament for suicide missions," Mr. Mercado said. The only historical precedent, he said, were the "jura mentado," Muslims who sacrificed themselves during Spanish and American colonial times.

"That was different," he said. "They were opposing a colonizing army."

Copyright © 2006 the International Herald Tribune