Thailand : A prime minister in a hurry
International Herald Tribune
January 7, 2003
Philip Bowring

At home he seems more secure than any elected Thai leader has ever been. Abroad he is beginning to make a mark, at least with his neighbors. But two years after he came to power following the success of his Thai Rak Thai party in the Jan. 6, 2001, elections, Taksin Shinawatra remains a divisive figure.

The police colonel turned telecoms tycoon has made good use of the strengthening of Thailand's democratic system which followed the financial crisis. He has taken advantage of post-crisis economic recovery to cement his popularity, reaping the benefit of painful reforms undertaken by his predecessor. Symbolically, he welcomed 2003 byannouncing the early repayment of a $4.8 billion loan from the IMF.

Since the elections he has added to his majorityby further consolidating political groupings. He is likely to see out a full term as prime minister — a rare event — and to be re-elected. He is seen as aiming to implant himself in Thai history as firmly as Mahathir bin Mohamad in Malaysia, with a long period in office and a leadership role in Southeast Asia.

Therein lies the problem, from the point of view of his critics. They regard him as an unprincipled opportunist who has more respect for the authoritarian tendencies of the likes of Mahathir than for the liberal and participatory ideals which have made Thailand, always an open society, an example of plural and democratic development.

They accuse him of favoring the sort of unhealthy business-government linkages which contributed to the Asian crisis. Before he went into politics, his success in business owed much to deals with the government. Nor can he quite shake off the memory that in 2001 he narrowly escaped being disbarred by the Constitutional Court for hiding his assets.

There is less evidence now of the money politics practiced by businessmen-politicians in the boom decade before 1997. But critics suggest that money politics has been centralized, not reduced.

Middle-class, academic and media critics accuse Taksin of trying to undermine key principles of separation of powers and decentralization of government, using executive powers to push through his own agenda. Grassroots nongovernmental organizations demonstrating on rural and social issues accuse him of using force, not reason, against them.

The wisdom of Taksin's advisers is widely questioned, and he is known to be at odds with two former prime ministers close to the palace, Prem Tinsulanonda and Anand Panyarachun.

None of this has yet seriously undermined his popularity, which is based on a mix of economic recovery, appeal to post-crisis nationalist grievances, superb management of his provincial political alliances, some populist budget giveaways, especiallyto rural voters, and support for small businesses against foreign competitors.

He is a fine salesman, and always in the thick of the action. Even his critics are relieved that his parliamentary majority has brought greater stability and less horse-trading of ministries.

Budget deficits and his emphasis on domestic demand were the right policies to spur the economy. But whether he can rein them in now that growth has returned is a key question.

So, too, is the durability of his hold on Parliament if other things start to go wrong. He may think that Thailand wants a strong, decisive leader. Perhapsit does. But the record is not supportive. Thaismay prefer to change prime ministers frequentlyand at their will, but monarchs infrequently andat God's will.

In Southeast Asia, Taksin may have an easier ride to higher status because of the leadership vacuum being created by the retirements of Mahathir and Singapore's Goh Chok Tong. President MegawatiSukarnoputri is a lightweight, and President Gloria Arroyo is leaving in 2004. Burma is a pariah andVietnam lacks a visible leader.

Taksin has been making new proposals for regional cooperation, kowtowing to China, signing deals with Malaysia and Bangladesh, and trying without much success to come to terms with Burma. This year he will play host to the Asia-Pacific Eco-nomic Cooperation meeting, a world-class photoopportunity.

All this will boost his image at home and perhaps Thailand's standing overseas. But Thailand's clout comes from its central position in mainland Southeast Asia, its strong economy, internationalist character and reputation for pragmatism, and the quality of its diplomats. Mahathir was in office for two decades before he stepped up to the world stage. So some ask: Does Thailand, or the region, need a prime minister with the urge to become an international figure as quickly as he became a billionaire?

[Not to be reproduced without the permission of the author.]

Copyright © 2006 the International Herald Tribune