Thailand : Thaksin is riding high — maybe too high
International Herald Tribune
January 7, 2004
Philip Bowring

'We need a Thaksin" has become a common sentiment in Southeast Asian countries, notably Indonesia and the Philippines, which have weak governments and an uninspiring choice of leaders in upcoming elections. In just three years in office Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of Thailand has established himself as the most prominent leader in the region. No one doubts that he will be returned to power in elections a year from now.

Thaksin sees himself as a successor to Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, Suharto of Indonesia and Mahathir bin Mohamad of Malaysia, renowned for their authoritarian tendencies as well as their long periods in office. This makes a large minority of Thais nervous that Thai democracy, which evolved painfully in the 20 years after the 1973 revolt against military strongmen, will be in sustained retreat against the forces of populist authoritarianism, a common enough phenomenon in the region and often accompanied by a large measure of cronyism and bypassing of judicial processes.

But is there really an apt comparison between Thaksin and these others? And is there such a position as "leader" of the region — other perhaps than in the eyes of non-Asian media?

Thaksin owes his pre-eminence to four factors: the passing from the scene of the long-established regional figures; Thailand's new economic boom, which has been attributed to "Thaksinomics" and is seen as regional exemplar; his astute use of constitutional changes and the power of patronage to assure the dominance of his coalition in Parliament, and his own policy activism and self-promotion.

The strength of the economy owes something to government spending and lending by state banks that were at once populist and pro-business. Thaksin has been able to take the credit, however, for the recovery made possible by three years of austerity under his Democrat predecessor, following the Asian financial crisis, plus the stimulation of low global interest rates.

The Thai economy has long been the most open and broad-based in southeast Asia, so a strong recovery was always likely. The danger now is that Thaksin will be carried away by his own ambitions.

Not content with 6.5 percent growth in 2003, he is looking for 8 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2005, a goal which if achieved would almost certainly be followed by another bust.

His eyes are on the 2005 election, in which he hopes that his Thai Rak Thai party can gain an absolute majority and no longer have to rely on a coalition. Critics fear that if he and his allies get 400 of the 500 seats, Parliament will be powerless to curb his authoritarian instincts. Their fears are justified. A can-do philosophy of "the end justifies the means" was evident in Thaksin's campaign against drugs, in which 2,500 suspected drug dealers were killed extrajudicially. In the short run, methods that bypass corrupt institutions and slow-moving procedures are popular.

The long-established pluralism of Thai politics, however, makes it unlikely that Thaksin can replicate the Malaysian or Singaporean systems of one-party dominance. His party is based on his personality, while the main opposition Democrat Party has an institutional base — and strength in liberal Bangkok, where a governorship election this year will test the depth of support for Thaksin's party.

State powers of patronage are also much less in Thailand than elsewhere in the region and the diversity of business interests has its counterpart in politics. The press has been partly brought to heel by Thaksin's use of commercial pressures, but the Thai news media is seldom cowed for long. Even when the generals ruled, the Thai press was freer than its counterparts in "democratic" Malaysia and Singapore.

Crucially too, it is the king — who has delivered homilies to Thaksin — who is the focus of national identity, rather than the political leader. Even military men have mostly had brief careers as leaders in the roughhouse of Thai politics.

Thailand's geography and economic strength have always given it a key role in southeast Asia. Thaksin has built on that through promoting good relations with both China and the United States, recently by sending troops to Iraq. Despite his nationalist rhetoric he has pushed for the freer trade among the members of Asean, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, from which Thailand particularly benefits. He has promoted regional financial cooperation and made overtures to South Asia.

Thailand has usually thrived, however, on high-quality, low-key diplomacy, not grandstanding. The Vietnamese reckon they are the equal of Thailand and resent Thai assumptions of regional leadership. Indonesians know their nation is by far the most populated and extensive in Southeast Asia.

Thaksin is riding high, but like many a businessman with a long string of successful gambles, overconfidence may be his biggest danger. For good or ill, there are finite limits to his power at home and his influence abroad.

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